Tuesday, April 23, 2024

Voting in Shutesbury: Pre- and Post-Pandemic

Via Clipart Library


Shutesbury’s Annual Town Meeting (ATM) is this Saturday, April 27, inside the Shutesbury Elementary School gymnasium. This marks the first time since 2019 that the event has been held inside and on the last Saturday in April, as required by the town’s bylaw.


This milestone started me thinking about how voting has changed since the pandemic struck in 2020, particularly at the local level. In many small towns with the town meeting style of government, voter turnout is generally low for both local elections and ATM attendance. This has also been the case in Shutesbury.


Let’s look at voting behavior before and after the pandemic hit in early 2020, nationally and here in Shutesbury.


2020 Was a Banner Year for Voting


Before the pandemic, many articles bemoaned the consistently low turnout of voters during local elections, even among those who voted in national elections. A 2018 New York Times opinion piece suggested that timing was the problem, and proposed aligning local and national elections to increase participation at the local level. 


On the national level, approximately 67% of eligible American voters cast ballots in the 2020 presidential election, the highest number in 120 years. More than ⅔ of those voters chose early voting and mail-in ballots rather than voting at traditional polling locations.  


I reviewed the data for Shutesbury, using information available on the town’s website and statistics provided to me by our Town Clerk.


86.3% of Shutesbury voters cast ballots in the 2016 presidential election;


44.2% voted in the 2018 state primary and 78.5% voted in the state election;


 65% voted in the 2020 presidential primary, 58.7% voted in the MA state primary, and 89% of town voters cast ballots in the presidential election. 


Like the rest of the country, a high percentage of registered Shutesbury voters cast ballots in the 2020 presidential election. This was typical behavior for our town since nearly as many also voted in the 2016 national election. We exhibit high participation rates for state elections as well.


Local Election Participation Lags State and National Turnout 


As in other American communities, this vigorous voting behavior is not mirrored by Shutesbury when it comes to local elections, as we can see from this chart. 

Shutesbury Annual Town Meeting

Fiscal Year

Registered Voters as of ATM

No. of Voters Attending

Turnout

No. of Ballots Cast 

Turnout 

2016

1,452

160

11%

208

14%

2017

1446

220

15%

286

19.7%

2018

1454

173

12%

225

15.5%

2019

1425

283

20%

262

18.3%

2020

1443*/1228**

N/A

N/A

545

38%/44%

2021

1492

218

14.6%

308

20.6%

2022

1426/1528***

542

35.5%

458

32.11%/30%

2023

1516

188

12.4%

340

23%

Source: Annual Town Reports, Shutesbury.org, and the Shutesbury Town Clerk (unless otherwise specified)

*FY2020 Annual Report

**Unofficial Town Election Results

***Both sets of numbers contained in the FY2022 Annual Report


While participation in Shutesbury ATM before the pandemic was dismal, things have perked up a bit since. Even without the 2020 voter sign-in data for ATM, the number of ballots cast was phenomenal. Participation in town elections has remained higher since, compared to the four years preceding the pandemic. This is likely due to the continued availability of early and mail-in ballot voting.


The Shutesbury election with the highest voter participation was seen during the successful June 28, 2022 debt exclusion vote for the new library. A total of 829 ballots were cast, resulting in a 54% turnout rate. Previously, at the best-attended ATM in years, a majority of citizens present voted to pursue funding for the project. The unusually high attendance could be attributed to the get-out-the-vote campaign initiated by the Shutesbury Library Trustees and an online pledge/signup sheet organized by library supporters. 


Unfortunately, attendance at Shutesbury’s 2023 ATM returned to pre-pandemic lows, though ballot voting was still more robust than in the four years before 2020.


Can Local Election Involvement be Improved?


Other Massachusetts towns have asked this question too–with different results.


In Andover, the paltry 2% voter turnout at their ATM prompted town officials to float the idea of changing Andover’s local government structure. Sadly, so few citizens expressed interest in town government in any form that the study committee could not justify support for change and said so.


Ashland took a different tack. Between 2016 and 2019, town officials used a variety of tactics to increase residents’ trust in local government and motivate them to become more invested in the town. The program worked so well that Ashland substantially increased ATM attendance and the town was a finalist for the national Voice of the People Award for Transformation in Community Engagement.


Can Shutesbury do the same? The turnout in 2022 proves that an issue of significant local interest–the construction of a new public library–paired with personal appeals and plenty of advertising can turn the tide against apathy.


This year, the Town Moderator and the Shutesbury Town Meeting Clicker Study Group are inviting residents to fill out a survey regarding their attitudes about ATM. Notably, the email about the survey acknowledges the concern Shutesbury residents have expressed about others critiquing their voting behavior during public voting at ATM. That is an issue that needs exploring if town officials want to ramp up community involvement in any context.


The fact sheet about voting with clickers is accessible here:

https://www.shutesbury.org/town_meeting


Here is the address for the survey:

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSc_fl7086hRWFT69WX3kXQW1_1QNk4b98zB8lOkJAMOOtqxNA/viewform


Please let town officials know how you feel. 


Possibly related is this agenda item for the Select Board meeting on Tuesday, April 23:


Moderator Report to the Selectboard on Electronic Voting Study Group


It will be interesting to see if this study group is related to the clicker study group. There is no information on either group on the town website, which is unusual. I suppose we will have to attend this meeting to be educated about this new development.



Thursday, April 11, 2024

Here’s Why MA Single-Family Tax Bills Keep Rising

Photo by Towfiqu barbhuiya on Unsplash

The March 21 issue of City & Town, the Massachusetts Division of Local Services (DLS) bimonthly newsletter, noted that the average single-family tax bill for fiscal year* (FY) 2024 is $7,403, up 5% from $7,056 for FY2023. The state’s average single-family home value is $665,864.

While rising property tax bills are not unusual in the Bay State, the rate at which these bills are increasing is notable. For example, the average yearly percentage by which single-family tax bills increased for fiscal years 2019, 2020, and 2021 was 3.3%; for fiscal years 2022, 2023, and 2024, the average percentage increase was 5.1%. 


A big reason for the increase in single-family tax bills can be traced to the rise in the value of the total number of Massachusetts parcels, which grew to $957,687,668,022 in FY2024 from $605,611,068,931 in FY2021–an increase of 58%. By comparison, values increased by 13% from FY 2017 to FY2020.


Another factor is that the number of parcels included in the calculations grew to 1,433,549 in FY2022 from 1,295,067 in FY2021. This change may have occurred because communities with a residential exemption or senior means-tested exemption in place were excluded from the formula until 2022.


What fueled this surge in property values? Blame the COVID-19 pandemic.



Pandemic-Induced Migration Changed the Housing Market


The COVID-19 pandemic initiated several changes that impacted the housing market: 


  1. Employees gained the ability to work remotely;

  2. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates in March 2020, causing mortgage rates to drop;

  3. Homebuyers’ yearning for more space and a lower cost of living.


As people moved to smaller cities, suburbs, and rural areas, home prices in these places began to climb. The interactive map embedded in this article from August 2021 shows that many small towns in western Massachusetts saw single-family home prices skyrocket between 2019 and 2021. While Shutesbury’s median price did not rise significantly, neighboring towns of similar population size saw their prices jump.

                        Median Home Prices by Town


Town

2019

2020

2021

Percent Increase

Shutesbury

$330,750

$315,000

$347,500

5%

Leverett

$292,500

$325,000

$494,000

69%

Pelham

$310,000

$370,000

$441,000

42%

Erving

$210,000

$186,700

$275,000

31%

Source: WBUR.org: Hot Housing Market Shows No Sign of Cooling Down in Massachusetts


While some areas have seen bigger sales price increases than others, the result is an upward trend in prices statewide. The Massachusetts Association of Realtors produces monthly market reports that highlight the change in the median single-family price since 2019. Here are the year-over-year reports for the past five years.



2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

Number of Sales Statewide

3,293

3,233

3,153

2,547

2198

2598

Median Price

$379,900

$405,000

$465,000

$525,000

$525,000

$577,000

% Change

Year over Year


6.61%

14.81%

12.9%

0%

9.9%


There is some evidence that home prices are moderating in our state’s most expensive cities and towns, though that is not the case in other, formerly more affordable, communities.



The Effect of Rising Real Estate Values on Tax Rates


An increase in property values doesn’t necessarily translate into a higher tax bill since tax rates fall when values rise. Over time property tax bills tend to trend upwards, though not in lockstep with increasing values. 


In Massachusetts, Proposition 2 ½ restricts the amount municipalities can tax property owners each year. Communities take the total value of real and personal property and multiply it by 2 ½ % to produce the levy ceiling, the maximum tax that can be levied that year. Municipalities usually do not tax property owners up to the levy ceiling. The annual levy limit is calculated by adding together the previous year’s levy limit, the product of multiplying said prior year's levy limit by 2 ½ %, new growth, and any applicable overrides. The actual levy can be equal to or less than the levy limit; it cannot exceed the levy limit.


Tax rates are set based on the expense budget approved by the community. The amount needed to fund the budget is divided by the total property value to determine the tax rate. When property values go up, the tax rate goes down, and vice versa.


When city and town budgets go up, tax bills increase. The inflation brought on by the pandemic increased costs for household and government budgets alike. Though annual inflation rates have dropped from their highs of 7% and 6.5% in 2021 and 2022, respectively, cumulative inflation from early 2021 to January 2024 is estimated at 18%.


For communities that rely heavily on property taxes to fund local government, there is little doubt that the average tax bill will continue to climb. For communities like Shutesbury, Annual Town Meeting (April 27) offers a chance to weigh in and vote on the town’s budget. I hope to see you there!



* In this case, a fiscal year starts July 1 of the prior year and ends June 30 of the year referenced after the abbreviation FY.  Therefore, FY2024 refers to the time from July 1, 2023 through June 30, 2024.



Voting in Shutesbury: Pre- and Post-Pandemic

Via Clipart Library Shutesbury’s Annual Town Meeting (ATM) is this Saturday, April 27, inside the Shutesbury Elementary School gymnasium. ...